Forward Thinking

One of the goals for hall five is to raise awareness of the benefits of trend forecasting services outside of the fashion and home furnishing industries. I had an interesting discussion on LinkedIn recently with an industrial designer called Ric Scott. I had posed the following comment;

"The trend forecasting industry would benefit from a web-based free-to-join network of companies and consultants that potential clients could browse through, let's discuss!" 

Ric Scott: As a Toy Designer...one of the the things that I always joked about was that you had  to be a prognosticator to such a degree that you are almost a fortune teller. 

Due to the manufacturing cycles you really have to "know" what will sell a YEAR from now and beyond.... 

I would love to join the Hall 5 group !!!

Jayne Mountford: Thanks Ric, you bring up an important point. hall five will endeavor to de-mystify trend forecasting and show how its principles can be applied to any industry including toys and games. If you believe, as I do, that trend forecasting is a social science and that trends (unlike fads) can be traced, it is possible to track socio-economic-cultural trends from the past and present in order to make an informed, professional opinion about what will happen in the future. That is the basis of qualitative analysis! 


Ric Scott: Thanks Jayne- 

I do believe that you can "forecast" with a great deal of accuracy. 

As a designer you are trained to look at "trends" and see the "big picture"....I have applied what I learned with the Stock Market, and the Housing Market. 

When the Dot Boom was under way...I was able to make 225K in one year..and sell before the market crashed.....With the housing Market, I told as many people as I could in 2004, 2005 to get a "home equity loan" and NOT TO USE IT, wait for the market to turn, pull the money out and put into an ETRADE account (the difference on what you would pay for the money and the amount of interest the ETRADE would pay you at the time was 2%). Then wait, and you would be able to buy the house across the street from you with that money and the rent that you got back would make your payment.........Most people Laughed at me.........and said "that will never happen here"..........Now we own multiple properties...in multiple states. 

I do have to point out I have made one big blunder...I was one of the first to ever see the Lexus Line in North America.....I said it would not make it ....because it looked like it was trying to look too much like Mercedes...boy was I wrong!!!! 

The key for me has been "DON"T BE GREEDY" ..."BE ETHICAL".. 

My mantra for this economy, buy more houses.....it is a cyclical market....you can even use your IRA's to buy houses. 


I look forward to hearing about how others "Forecast"...and their "predictions"