Fortune Hunting

Fortune Teller, by André Kertész (1930)

What IS a trend forecaster? How do they predict trends? Do they use a crystal ball? Once the hall five website launches in June I am hoping there will be some lively discussions on this subject and many more.


Li Edelkoort

One of the most famous trend forecasters in the world is Dutch-born, Li Edelkoort, head of Paris-based company, Trend Union. I found a great profile about her on a German website, Symrise. Here is a summary,

"According to Edelkoort, trend forecasting, unlike trend spotting, is indispensable in every branch of industry, even though the need for it has yet to be recognized the way it should. “I don’t discover anything new,” she states. “I observe and interpret peoples’ behavior and moods and note down what I see. I act as a catalyst for the spirit of the day and turn it into trends as early as possible.” Li Edelkoort relies primarily on her intuition, and after that she works with scenarios of explanations and philosophy. Her perceptive awareness of societal movements, political developments and social changes is a tool she uses in her work. Li Edelkoort always uses the same approach in her analyses. She looks for answers to questions such as: what will our lives be like in the future? What will people want? What wishes and needs will they have? What characteristics will a product need to have to be a success on the market? How does a product appeal to peoples’ senses – how do you inspire people to want to buy things?

What is the difference between trend and lifestyle, and how long do their cycles last? Li Edelkoort says that a shirt, a shape or a color can be examples of a trend. While there are short and medium wave trends, most last for much longer periods, evolving gradually each season or returning from time to time. Pink as a fashion color is now a classic, teddy bear cosiness is a time-loved attitude, skin-like materials have moved with the times, our obsession with plants and gardening has introduced the concept of outside-inside. These “lifestyles” are trends with long lifespans; lasting for five, ten or twenty years, or even up to a half a century, before they lose popularity."

Take Flight, Fall 2011-2012

Li Edelkoort's presentations are legendary, most often ending after she has stopped talking with a series of strikingly inspirational images. In the quiet and the dark of an auditorium, they wash over the audience leaving it spell-bound, their soporific trance finally broken by thunderous applause. A recent audience in New York was treated to the sight of Li with a colorful cockatoo perched on her shoulder. Her Fall 2011-2012 offering is entitled "Take Flight", a metaphor for what Li believes fashion and design is about to do now that the recession is easing up. New colors and textures and a higher plane of creativity are what she is predicting and as we know, Li is never wrong!